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Euro funds are this week's stretched position: net short 7.8% of open interest after a fourth weekly fall, which scores 2 on a one-year scale where 0 is the most net short and 100 the most net long. Swiss franc funds sit similarly low, at 4. The New Zealand dollar is a change, not a stretch: funds went from almost flat to 9.3% net short, yet that is only 71 on the same scale. A fifth euro fall would test the year's low of 8.0% net short; a pause would ease the picture.
Since the London pre-open briefing, price has risen about 23 pips and the earlier resistance at 1.1235–1.1243 failed.
Since the London pre-open briefing, price has risen about 4 pips.
The 15-minute, hourly and four-hour charts show upward patterns, while the daily chart shows no clear pattern.
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The dollar is soft despite hot US inflation: Thursday's September producer prices ran 6.3% against 5.3% expected, yet the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 5.09%. Fed Chair Warsh gave no rate guidance overnight, with October hike odds near 27%, so further yield declines could keep pressure on the dollar against the euro and sterling. Trump said US strikes on Iran remain possible, with WTI at $97.59 Thursday. Watch eurozone final inflation at 09:00 UTC and US industrial production at 13:15 UTC.
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Since the US pre-open briefing, price has fallen about 5 pips and Intraday resistance is new.
Since the London pre-open briefing, price has risen about 8 pips.
Since the London pre-open briefing, price has fallen about 52 pips. Retrospective summary.
Since the Asia pre-open briefing, price has risen about 28 pips and the earlier Swing resistance at 1.1204–1.1211 failed.
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